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Bonaire Climate Case: Creative or Questionable Interpretation of International Climate Law?

Pranav Ganesan, PhD Candidate at the University of Zurich

The Greenpeace Netherlands v. State of the Netherlands(Bonaire) judgment of the Hague District Court has stolen the limelight as the new posterchild for strategic climate litigation. The plaintiff in this case, Greenpeace Netherlands, argued that the Dutch government failed in its duty to protect the residents of Bonaire, an island in the Caribbean which formally attained the status of a special municipality of the Netherlands in 2010. Although it is a special municipality (bijzondere gemeente), it is just as much a part of the Netherlands as any other province in the European Netherlands. The Dutch government owes obligations under international human rights law, including those arising from the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), towards residents of the municipality. That international human rights law requires states to undertake climate mitigation measures and adaptation measures, as informed by international climate change law where relevant, has been affirmatively held in two advisory opinions from international courts and the European Court of Human Rights. And the proposition that the Dutch government’s duty of care towards its population essentially includes obligations under the ECHR was confirmed by the Supreme Court of the Netherlands in Urgenda. Thus, it comes as no surprise that in material respects, the Hague District Court’s reasoning was so heavily based on international law.[1] In terms of the scope of state conduct implicated in this case, it outdoes the Urgenda case,which only concerned contributions to the mitigation of climate change. The Hague District Court agreed with the plaintiff that the Dutch government had violated Article 8 ECHR as well as the prohibition of discrimination (Art. 14 ECHR and Art. 1 of Protocol No. 12 to the ECHR), the former due to inadequate mitigation measures, inadequate implementation of those measures, delays in adopting an adaptation plan for Bonaire and late provision of procedural safeguards to the residents of Bonaire. In this blog, I provide a quick analysis of the District Court’s engagement with the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and Paris Agreement in the section on mitigation measures. Readers interested in learning about the adaptation component and how the court addressed discrimination claim are welcome to read this blogpost by Wewerinke-Singh.

There are areas in the judgment where the District Court’s assessment of the compatibility of the Dutch Climate law framework with international climate law is questionable. The first glaring issue is that the court made a finding of non-compliance with Article 4(4) of the Paris Agreement based on the absence of ‘absolute emissions reduction targets’ in the Dutch Climate Act of 2019 (para 11.13.1). The problem identified by the court was that the targets were expressed as goals that the government would ‘strive to achieve.’ However, this does not mean that the targets are not absolute. The difference between absolute and relative emissions reductions targets being whether they are expressed as percentage reductions in comparison to the emissions during a fixed baseline year, as opposed to reductions from a business as usual scenario in case of relative targets (Winkler et al 2014, 636). The use of the expression ‘strive to achieve’ means that the nature of the obligation to achieve the target is one of conduct rather than result, reflecting the nature of the obligation to pursue domestic mitigation measures in pursuance of NDCs communicated under Article 4(2) of the Paris Agreement (ICJ Advisory Opinion, paras 251-253). Another connected example is the court’s declaration that ‘UN standards’ require emission reduction targets to be expressed as percentage reductions to be achieved by the target date, in comparison to 2019 levels as opposed to the 1990 baseline (para 11.13.2). Moreover, strictly speaking, Article 12(8) of the UNFCCC does not require the EU to provide information about each member state’s national carbon budget like the court suggests (para 11.15.3). The court’s interpretation of these treaty provisions might be technically imprecise, but it is undoubtedly bold, being based on the need for exemplary efforts from a developed country like the Netherlands, and reflecting the appropriate sense of urgency in light of the results of the First Global Stocktake (para 11.9.4). Through its interpretive moves, the court effectively hardened ‘soft’ obligations (i.e. normative expectations) sourced from the Paris Agreement and COP decisions (on hard and soft obligations in the Paris Agreement, see Rajamani, 2016).

A final noteworthy aspect of the judgment is the rather detailed response to how the notion of ‘equity’ in Article 3(1) of the UNFCCC and Articles 2(1) and 4(1) of the Paris Agreement is to be applied in reviewing states’ mitigation commitments. Equity is an elusive concept, with debates on what an equitable distribution of the global emissions reduction burden entails having remained unsettled since the inception of international negotiations on the topic of climate mitigation (Oliver Herrera et al, 2025). The court provided the (un)acceptability of a ‘grandfathering approach’ as an example of one such debate (para 11.13.5). But it did not go so far as to hold that the grandfathering approach is legally impermissible because it is inequitable per se, or that an equal per capita emissions approach is the minimum standard under international law. Rather, it assessed the Netherlands’ policy negatively on account of its failure to justify why its current policy, which is based on the controversial grandfathering principle and falls short of the ambition required by the equal per capita emissions approach, is equitable in accordance with Article 3(1) of the UNFCCC and Article 4(1). It thus did not use equity to dictate the outcome of what exactly the Dutch government’s fair share of the global carbon emissions ought to be. At same time, it did not use the underlying controversy as a reason to entirely avoid reviewing the substance of the Dutch climate mitigation policy. This is underscored by its remedial findings, wherein the court declared that the Netherlands’ current mitigation commitments were inequitable, thereby leading to a breach of Article 8 (para 12.1), but dismissed Greenpeace’s request ordering the adoption of specific emissions reduction targets by the government, or at least a carbon budget reflecting the ‘equal per capita emissions approach’ (paras 8.1 (IV)-(VI), 11.55 and 11.58).

Overall, the Bonaire judgment shows how climate litigation can lead to precarious precedents. On the one hand, the way the Court engaged with the concept of equity provided an assessment of Dutch mitigation ambition which was notably pragmatic and might serve as inspiration for other courts when asked to answer the fair share question. On the other hand, the judgment risks signaling to states that legal texts—which negotiators toiled to craft in ‘constructively ambiguous’ terms—may be stretched by domestic courts to uncomfortable extents. Ultimately, the appellate court’s scrutiny of this case (should the Dutch government file an appeal) will reveal how this judgment will be remembered: whether it will be hailed for its boldness or criticized for its questionable interpretation of international treaties.


[1] André Nollkaemper commented: ‘Today’s judgment of the District Court of The Hague fully lives up to the reputation of Dutch courts as strongly international law-minded. […] The conclusion is firmly anchored in international law. With 29 references to the ICJ Advisory Opinion on Climate Change, 64 references to the European Court’s KlimaSeniorinnen judgment, 64 to the UNFCCC, 62 to the Paris Agreement, and 12 to COP decisions, this surely ranks high on the list of climate change cases that are most shaped by international law.’

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Pabai Tells: Judicial Signposting for Relief

By Esther Gabriel, Juris Doctor, Harvard Law School, Visiting Scholar at the CRRP

Pabai v. Commonwealth of Australia sits as a defining national case within the broader Torres Strait Islander litigation context. It follows two successful judgements. First, Daniel Billy and others v. Australia (Torres Strait Islanders Petition), decided by United Nations Human Rights Committee, established that the Australian government’s climate change inaction was violative of its human rights obligations to the Torres Strait Islanders. In particular, and relevant here, the Committee found that Australia had violated the Torres Strait Islanders’ right to enjoy their unique culture, the Ailan Kastom, under Article 27. Declaring that, “in the case of indigenous peoples, the enjoyment of culture may relate to a way of life which is closely associated with territory and the use of its resources…[t]hus, the protection of this right is directed towards ensuring the survival and continued development  of cultural identity,” the Committee required Australia to make full reparations including providing adequate compensation to the authors for harms suffered (paras. 8.13, 11). A novel decision in furtherance of justice.

Next, a decision by the Australian Land Court in Waratah Coal Pty Ltd v. Youth Verdict Ltd et al. (No 6), made tangible the force of the Torres Strait Islanders’ cultural rights. In denying its recommendation for the issuance of a coal mining lease, the administrative court found, among others, that the evidence showed climate change impacts would have a profound impact on the cultural rights of the Torres Strait Islanders, risking the survival of their culture. This finding was largely driven by the direct application of the Human Rights Act 2019. The court accepted the causal relationship between the mining of coal and the harm to the cultural rights of First Nations peoples. Powerfully, the coal mine project was stopped.   

Drawing on this momentum and going a step further to secure enforceable remedies, Pabai v. Commonwealth of Australia, asked the Australian national court to operationalize its discretion to reach a similar judgement in tort law. However, the court declined to do so. In their primary case, claimants alleged that the Commonwealth owed a duty of care to all Torres Strait Islanders to take reasonable steps to protect them, their traditional way of life, and the Torres Strait and its marine environment, from the current and projected impacts of climate change on the Torres Strait Islands (Judgment Summary). They alleged that the Commonwealth breached this duty when setting disingenuous greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets in 2015, 2020, 2021 and 2022. As a result of the breach, they claimed that the Torres Strait Islanders suffered harms, primarily cultural losses. Their alternative case similarly alleged that the Commonwealth owed a duty to Torres Strait Islanders to take reasonable care to avoid causing property damage, loss of fulfilment of Ailan Kastom and injury arising from a failure to adequately implement adaptation measures to prevent or minimize the current and projected impacts of climate change in the Torres Strait Islands. This claim centered on a failed Seawalls Project. The court ultimately hung its hat, for both the primary and secondary case, on a political question, reasoning that government decisions and policies are not properly or appropriately made the subject of common law duties of care. The Commonwealth owes no such duty to Torres Strait Islanders.

Traditionally, a finding of no duty exhausts the inquiry. Here however, in its rigorous analysis of all elements including duty, breach, causation, and damages, the court marks critical signposts. So, towards achieving comprehensive justice—respect and remedy—Pabai teaches three fundamental lessons: (1) the need to communicate with specificity, resisting abstractness in litigation; (2) the need to adopt a fiduciary standard when executing remedies; (3) and the urgent need to diversify approaches to relief, minimizing risks flowing from failed climate litigation. An Indigenous child of Pasifika, I too, learn.

  1. Claims must be concrete, and harms redressable.

The court rejects Pabai’s sweeping abstractions, occupying the claim from pleading to prayer for relief. Claimants’ application focuses heavily on laying the foundation for climate change and its broader implications such as sea-level rise. While important, it fails to also adequately make a case for specific individual harms, as is necessary for the tort of negligence. The court notes, “the applicant’s primary case was, it would be fair to say, pleaded in somewhat broad, elaborate and, at times, convoluted terms” (para. 32). Because climate change invokes unique spatial and temporal elements, it is tempting to stay in abstract ambiguity. While this litigation style worked previously in international and administrative fora, it does not pass muster in tort law at the national level. Claimants failed to sufficiently equip the court with the precise tools to translate tangible and intangible experiences into injuries-in-fact. The court summarizes that the loss of fulfilment of Ailan Kastom is not a recognized compensable “species of harm” (Judgment Summary). In its closing argument, the Commonwealth exclaims, there is no evidence to establish damage to property, or personal injury, disease or death, and claimants have not sought to quantify their losses (para. 11). Quantification is the language of tort law which seeks to remedy concrete harms. Thus, to succeed, legal arguments, harms, and remedies cannot be too attenuated or remote.

This compels us to ask, must the court expand tort law to include cultural loss or can concrete losses relating to cultural practices be described in such a way as to “fit” into existing tort jurisprudence? The answer is more normative, but to communities facing imminent loss, the machine is likely less important than the output. The priority is always on the award of remedies, as a matter of justice. The court is free to decide how to get there. Here, however, Pabai spins the court around by forcing too many novel and abstract inferences:

  • To establish causation, plaintiffs advanced a seven-point causal chain that ultimately reasoned that it “matters not that it may not be possible to measure or quantify the effect that the additional emissions may have had on global temperature increases, or the specific impact that the increase in global temperature referrable to the increased emissions may have had on climate change in the Torres Strait” (para. 43).
  • “As for the loss and damage suffered by the applicants and other Torres Strait Islanders, the applicants’ case ultimately focused primarily on what was said to be the collective loss of fulfillment of Ailan Kastom suffered by all Torres Strait Islanders arising from the damage to or degradation of the land and marine environment of the Torres Strait Islands. There was very limited evidence in respect of damage to the applicants’ personal or real property” (para. 44).
  • “The applicants’ alternative case in negligence against the Commonwealth was also initially expressed in very broad and general terms. … Ultimately, however, the applicants were effectively compelled to fall back on a far more limited case” (paras. 45, 46).

Pabai’s prayer for relief does not rescue. It’s broad-brushed and speculative nature sparks a redressability concern. Can the court deliver what the claimants seek? Here, injunctive relief would require the Commonwealth to “… implement such measures as are necessary to: protect the land and marine environment of the Torres Strait Islands and the cultural and customary rights of the Torres Strait Islanders, including Applicants and Group Members, from GHG [greenhouse gas] emissions into the Earth’s atmosphere; reduce Australia’s GHG emissions with the Best Available Science Target; and otherwise avoid injury and harm to Torres Strait Islanders, including the Applicants and the Group Members, from GHG emissions into the Earth’s atmosphere” (para. 52). Arguably necessary as a global and political matter, this grand remedyasks the court to grant relief that is likely inappropriate and impractical for it to redress. Thus, beyond the scope of negligence, too squishy, Pabai fails.

Inundating the court with abstract claims and novel legal arguments left little room in its torts imagination to consider harmful impacts to culture, well within its discretion (see Stolen Generations’ cases). Justice Wigney conceded, “[w]hile I have considerable sympathy for the applicants’ contention that Ailan Kastom should be recognized as capable of protection by law, I do not consider that it is open to me, sitting as a single judge of this Court, to recognize, for the first time, that participation in, or enjoyment or observance of, customs, traditions, observances and beliefs, can constitute or comprise rights or interests capable of protection by law.” (para. 1131). Setting precedent on this point should have been the most salient priority as it would have been of greatest benefit to the Torres Strait Islanders and the broader Indigenous community. For remedies, especially compensation, to realize, cultural loss would be best if recognized at the national level. Billy decided, at the international level, that the Australian government ought to pay compensation. However, within their sovereign authority, Australia determined otherwise. Instead, they offered consultation and programmatic funding as more appropriate relief. Hence, individual and communal harms are best redressed at the national level where judgments are binding on the state and relief is not optional or open to interpretation, and enforcement fleeting.

Legitimizing cultural loss across legal fora is a necessary first step in adjudicating with justice in climate change. For Indigenous peoples, tortious harms to our person and property implicate cultural loss. This is a mere translation gap, not a values divergence. Establishing cultural loss as a harm in tort law does not depart from traditional jurisprudence. Underlying tort law is culture, with common examples to include ideals of privacy, products, property, and person. For instance, the innkeepers’ rule which imposes a heighted duty of care to guests and their property and attaches liability for loss and damage, advances a cultural expectation of travelers on their hosts, binding hotels even in the present-day. So, as applied to Torres Strait Islanders, Indigenous cultural expectations need an expression, a language in the law. The term ‘cultural loss’ serves merely to articulate claims and be made whole, fitting squarely within the purpose and intention of tort law. Sadly, Pabai kicks this finding down the road.

  1. Remedy implementations implicate fiduciary duties.

Pabai’s argument in the alternative reveals a misplaced fiduciary expectation. Relying on the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) Principles, which sketch management roles and responsibilities for climate-change risks between the Commonwealth, State and Territory, and local governments, Pabai asserts that the Commonwealth, in its leadership role, assumed responsibility for the funding and proper execution of the local Seawalls Project (see para. 1156). The court expressly disagrees, calling the assertion a “misreading or misconstruction” (para. 1156). COAG Principles require local governments to play a critical role “contribut[ing] appropriate resources to prepare, prevent, respond and recover from detrimental climate impacts” (para. 1158). Offloading responsibility frustrates the court. COAG principles are grounded in cooperative governance to benefit Australia as a whole. It is a sharing, not a shifting of burdens. So, backed into a corner, the court egregiously comments “[i]t is difficult to see that the funding of an infrastructure project like the Seawalls Project involves a matter that may affect national prosperity or security” (para. 1157). It does (Parliamentary Acts affirm). At its core and as a matter of principle, refusing to embrace a shared fiduciary duty hurt Pabai.

The Seawalls Project lies incomplete; the budget ran out. Because the project funding was secured through a competitive grants scheme whereby approval hinged on an “efficient, effective and ethical” proposal, the Torres Strait Council, the local governing body, cemented their fiduciary duty in their proposal (para. 1163). Not mere words, they were obligated to act in the best interests of the beneficiary, the Torres Strait Islands—the place and its people.

So, what went wrong? A wholly reliant posture sought to delegate a non-delegable duty. The duty to lead and ensure completion of this project rested squarely on the Torres Strait Islanders as peoples of that land, not the Commonwealth, as argued. Australia could assist, but never rightfully take over. The court suggests an underestimation of the overall extent and costs to be the cause of the incompleteness, not deficiencies by the Commonwealth. It reminds, “The [Torres Strait Island Regional Council] was responsible for the implementation of the Seawalls Project” (para. 780). The local government failed to embrace its own fiduciary role and responsibility regarding the Seawalls Project. Consequently, the court held that while the Commonwealth provided funding, a combined project total of 64 million dollars, far exceeding the initial 5-million-dollar grant, they did not inhere a duty to lead and coordinate the project (Judgment Summary). That responsibility rightfully rests at home; our duty to place, as Indigenous peoples, is non-delegable.

  1. Litigation risks to relief must be diversified.  

The Torres Strait Islanders cannot be left to battle the most devastating impacts of climate change alone. Their harms compel help. Because remedies are critical, solutions and hope cannot be concentrated on litigation alone. Litigation is but one tool in a much larger toolkit and as evinced here, it can fail.

The most detrimental cost of unsuccessful litigation is time. As the impacts of climate change increase and become more frequent, delays compound harm. Frontline communities must adopt a multi-pronged strategy for survival. While litigation percolates, remedies can operationalize with the help of private and public partners. Diversification ensures a minimum threshold of safety. The health and safety of a peoples so vulnerable to mass climate devastation must never be a zero-sum game.

At times, bold litigation moves for the benefit of all push to the back the basic and immediate priorities of individual claimants. For a time, they are heralded as heroic champions challenging the protected status quo. But with a loss, they soon fade into the noise, still without help. The strategic choice of establishing a new category in tort, cultural loss, over particularizing harms to fit within the traditional torts framework, proved consequential for the Torres Strait Islanders.

Taking a step back to consider fairness, we might ask: must those facing imminent tortious harms also be the pacesetters for legal innovation, celebrating occasional wins, but mostly burdened by catastrophic losses? I would proffer that there exists a balanced approach that a min, secures reasonable remedies, and when available, reaches for world-benefitting precedent. This is my ambition for climate litigation involving, especially, frontline communities who cannot afford to lose. Until the law begins to trust that Indigenous communities do not bring absurd claims, we must communally problem-solve to truly hear and understand what Uncle Pabai truly means when he whispers, “all our land has now washed away” (Fred Pabai Sworn Affidavit).

Concluding, respect requires prudent action. This is within reach.   

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Does the ICJ Ignite States’ ‘Appetite’ for Climate Damages Claims?

Viktoriya Gurash, postdoctoral researcher at the University of Zurich

Introduction

In response to the International Court of Justice’s (ICJ) advisory opinion on the Obligations of States in Respect of Climate Change, the BBC summarized the opinion by stating that ‘a top UN court has cleared the way for countries to sue each other over climate change.’ Indeed, the opinion not only offers a comprehensive clarification of states’ substantive obligations regarding climate change but also engages with important aspects of State responsibility in view of the special features of climate change. The central challenge lies in the fact that numerous states both contribute to and suffer from climate change, albeit to varying degrees (see para. 421).

From the outset, the ICJ made it clear that its task was to identify, in general terms, the legal framework within which a State’s international responsibility may be invoked for an internationally wrongful act, as well as to outline the remedies available in the event of such a breach (see para. 406). Importantly, the opinion clarified that the well-established rules on State responsibility under customary international law – principally reflected in the International Law Commission’s Articles on State Responsibility (ARSIWA) – apply in the context of climate change (see para. 420). To this end the Court affirmed that mechanisms such as the Loss and Damage Fund and the non-compliance procedures established under climate treaties do not constitute a lex specialis to these rules (see paras. 413-419). In its examination of the law on State responsibility, the advisory opinion specifically engaged with the issues of attribution and causation. This blogpost analyses the ICJ’s interpretation of these key elements, which underpin the conditions for compensation of climate-related harm.

Attribution of International Responsibility

The ICJ emphasised that the internationally wrongful act is not the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) per se, but the breach of an international obligation (see para. 427). Since these obligations are characterized as obligations of conduct, a breach may be attributed to states that have not exercised due diligence in taking appropriate measures to protect the climate system from GHG emissions. Accordingly, establishing international responsibility requires the existence of an internationally wrongful act and its attribution to a state, regardless of whether the act results in actual harm (see para. 433). Therefore, according to the ICJ, the issue of causation is not essential for establishing a breach of an international climate obligation.

The ICJ’s interpretation of the attribution of internationally wrongful acts is closely tied to the nature of the underlying substantive climate obligations. The distinction between obligations of conduct and those of result is crucial to understanding the role of the causation in establishing international responsibility. In a case involving obligation of conduct, the question is not the extent of harm caused by the state, but rather whether the state has taken appropriate measure to prevent such a harm (see Nollkaemper, p. 38). Although obligations of conduct do not require examination that a specific event or harm materialized, the element of causation nevertheless retains its relevance. An assessment of due diligence depends on consideration of the nature of the risk and the state’s capacity to mitigate it. For example, the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) in the KlimaSeniorinnen case noted that ‘what is important, and sufficient to engage the responsibility of the State, is that reasonable measures which the domestic authorities failed to take could have had a real prospect of altering the outcome or mitigating the harm’ (see para. 444). With an obligation of conduct, the causal nexus between the foreseeable negative effects of climate change (general causation, see Nollkaemper, p. 40) and the State’s capacity to act should be analysed. In matters of general causation, the potential effects of climate change may be reliably established on the basis of IPCC reports and therefore do not present a significant evidentiary challenge.

Causation of Climate Harm

Causation plays a critical role in the assessment of reparation, especially with respect to claims for compensation arising from climate-related harm. The ICJ acknowledged that the existing legal standard for establishing causation, as developed in its own jurisprudence, is capable of being applied in the context of climate change (para. 436). The advisory opinion emphasized that causation requires establishing a causal link between the resulting climate-related harm and the conduct of a specific State or group of States. The ICJ observed that while the causal link may be ‘more tenuous than in the case of local sources of pollution’, its identification is not impossible and ‘must be established in each case through an in concreto assessment’ (see paras. 437-438).

The Court’s pronouncement offers limited guidance on resolving the issue of the allocation of compensation for climate-related harm between states (see Reetz, Paddeu and Jackson). Moreover, Judge Nolte elaborates on the challenges for contentious proceedings that were not addressed in the advisory opinion, in particular with respect to claims for climate damages. In his view, the Court should have highlighted those difficulties more openly, in order to avoid creating false hope that climate litigation could serve as a substitute for existing mechanisms of financial transfers and remedies addressing climate-related harm (see Declaration of Judge Nolte). The main difficulty, as emphasized by Judge Nolte, lies in determining a combination of wrongful acts sufficient to have caused harm to the climate system, along with the need for a normative assessment of whether a specific level of GHG emissions constitutes a breach of the obligation to exercise best efforts (Nolte, paras. 19-30).

The climate science (see the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report) is clear that not all climate-related harm can be prevented through mitigation measures alone. Arguably, an important frontier of climate justice is to provide redress when harm occurs (see Rocha, Tigre and Cohen). To date, no international court has definitively addressed the standard of causation required to determine compensation for climate-related harm. The International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea in its advisory opinion on Climate Change and International Law acknowledged that ‘given the diffused and cumulative causes and global effects of climate change, it would be difficult to specify how anthropogenic GHG emissions from activities under the jurisdiction or control of one State cause damage to other States’ (para. 252). Despite the Inter-American Court of Human Rights having recognised the need for ‘compensation measures based on appropriate methodologies to assess the losses suffered’ in its advisory opinion regarding the Climate Emergency and Human Rights (AO-32/35) (para. 558), it did not engage with the complexity of cumulative causation. Furthermore, since the ECtHR in the KlimaSeniorinnen case rejected victim status for individuals (paras. 527-535), and the applicant association (para. 647) did not submit a claim for damages, it remains unclear how the ECtHR will determine causation for the compensation purposes.

Inquiries into how the problem of cumulative causation should be addressed in the context of compensation for climate harm can be found in the literature. For example, Nollkaemper offers concrete proposals, presenting two main alternatives: first, an obligation to provide full reparation to individual states; and second, an apportionment of compensation based on each actor’s relative share of contribution (for more details see Nollkaemper, pp. 51-54). Overall, the author supports an approach that prioritizes fairness and climate justice over strict mathematical causation (p. 54). While the ICJ could have shed more light on resolving the complexities of cumulative causation, it nevertheless affirmed the role of litigation in compensation of climate damages (para. 438).

Conclusion

It is doubtful whether the Court’s role in issuing this advisory opinion should be understood as either encouraging or discouraging climate litigation. If litigation is expected to deliver global justice by allocation of responsibility to compensate for climate harm among all the states, it is doubtful that any court alone could fulfil such a task. Rather, the significance of the ICJ’s pronouncement lies in affirming that international climate litigation between states remains a potential avenue for seeking compensation for climate-related harm within the broader framework of international legal instruments.

Should claims for climate harm compensation come before international courts, causation will be a key issue. The way courts resolve it will significantly influence the effectiveness of litigation as a tool for providing redress. The ICJ has deferred this analysis to a future occasion, when it is presented with a concrete case featuring a claim for compensation and a claimant’s specific arguments concerning, for example, the role of historical emissions in determining causation. If a state brings a claim seeking redress for climate damages before the ICJ, provided the Court has jurisdiction and the claim is deemed admissible, it would be compelled to confront the causation puzzle. In this sense, the situation reflects the German saying, ‘was auf den Tisch kommt, wird gegessen’ – or, in other words, what is brought to the table must be dealt with.

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The ICJ’s Interpretation of the Paris Agreement

Pranav Ganesan, PhD candidate at the University of Zurich

Introduction

The ICJ, in its advisory opinion on the Obligations of States in respect of Climate Change (AO), makes several notable findings which are worth unpacking and assessing. In this blogpost, I will comment upon some of the Court’s findings related to the interpretation of states’ obligations arising from the 2015 Paris Agreement (Part IV.B of the AO).

Much of the Court’s engagement with the provisions of the climate treaties, in the part of the judgment answering the first question concerning the international obligations of States to protect the climate system and other parts of the environment, was limited to identifying whether they contained procedural or substantive obligations, and obligations of conduct or obligations of result. The most interesting findings of the Court were:

  • That between the two temperature limits specified in the Paris Agreement (PA), viz. 2°C and 1.5°C (art. 2.1(a)), keeping the global average temperature increase below 1.5°C is the ‘primary temperature goal’ (para. 224); and
  • That Paris Agreement Parties’ discretion to determine the substantive content of their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) is limited (para. 245).

In order to arrive at these conclusions, the Court resorted to the rules of interpretation as under the 1969 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (VCLT).

1.5°C as the Primary Goal

Regarding the 1.5°C temperature limit, the Court considered the Glasgow Pact, as a ‘subsequent agreement’ between the parties to the Paris Agreement regarding its interpretation. Subsequent agreements between all parties to a treaty regarding its interpretation or application must be ‘taken into account’ together with the treaty’s context for the purposes of interpretation (VCLT, Art. 31(3)(a)). In other words, they must be thrown into the ‘crucible’ of all things that inform a treaty provision’s interpretation (see Declaration of Judge Tladi, para. 13). Readers may recall that the Conference of Parties (COP) held at Glasgow in the year 2021 aimed to keep the 1.5°C goal alive. The Glasgow Pact reaffirms Article 2.1(a) of the Paris Agreement, and then:

Recognizes that the impacts of climate change will be much lower at the temperature increase of 1.5 °C compared with 2 °C and resolves to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C’ (para. 21, emphasis in the original).

The ICJ also relied on the 2023 UAE Consensus which ‘encourages Parties to come forward in their next nationally determined contributions with ambitious, economy-wide emission reduction targets, covering all greenhouse gases, sectors and categories and aligned with limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, as informed by the latest science, in the light of different national circumstances’ (Decision 1/CMA.5, para. 39).

Why is specifying the primacy of 1.5°C important? The mention of two different temperature limits in the Paris Agreement (a comprise formulation considering intractable disagreements between negotiating states) has been a source of some confusion. Mayer has argued that Article 2.1(a) can be explained as prescribing 2°C as the ‘real’ objective, with the States realizing that ‘achieving it is only possible if each of them implements the level of mitigation action that it sees as consistent with a 1.5°C target.’ Rajamani and Werksman have noted that: ‘[a]lthough there are differences in impacts between a 1.5°C temperature rise and a 2°C temperature rise, because the [PA’s] temperature goal is a single goal with two textually inseparable elements—the 1.5° C aspirational goal and the ‘well below 2°C’ goal—the implications of missing the goal are the same in relation to the implementation of the Agreement.’ The implications of missing the goal, according to the above authors, do not include state responsibility for individual Parties as Article 2.1 does not create legally binding obligations. However, there is no confusion as to the provision’s relevance for interpretation (which I shall get to in the next section).

Other international courts which have engaged with this provision have not been as clear about the primacy of the 1.5°C goal under the PA. In its KlimaSeniorinnen judgment, although the European Court of Human Rights noted as a general consideration that ‘the relevant risks are projected to be lower if the rise in temperature is limited to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’ (para. 436), it did not make normative statements suggesting 1.5°C as a quantitative temperature goal. In its findings as to the content of positive obligations under Article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), it held that mitigation measures to be undertaken by ECHR parties must be aimed at preventing ‘a rise in global average temperature beyond levels capable of producing serious and irreversible adverse effects on human rights’ (para. 546). Admittedly, the Court’s factual finding regarding a +1.5°C warmer world could be taken together with this latter finding to imply that if the 1.5°C is crossed, the conclusion that human rights are seriously and irreversibly affected becomes obvious. Alternatively, the conspicuous absence of any mention of the 1.5°C threshold in the court’s conclusions as to ECHR parties’ positive obligations could be taken to imply that determination of what constitutes an unsafe level falls within each state party’s margin of appreciation as reduced by the consensus reflected in the PA and subsequent COP decisions (on the reduced margin of appreciation, see para 543). Under this line of reasoning, the Court could be seen as having shied away from putting forward its position on the issue of whether a consensus had arisen as to whether the lower of the two temperature goals is primary.

The International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea took a different route its advisory opinion where it was tasked with interpreting obligations under the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea related to addressing the deleterious effects of climate change on the marine environment. Regarding Article 194(1), the Tribunal interpreted the content of the duty to prevent, reduce and control marine environmental pollution via greenhouse gas emissions as requiring parties to undertake the necessary emission reduction measures while taking into account the 1.5°C goal in the PA (para. 243). It did so based on the ‘broad agreement within the scientific community that if global temperature increases exceed 1.5°C, severe consequences for the marine environment would ensue’ (para. 241). In other words, the ITLOS did not explicate that it regarded 1.5°C as the ‘primary goal’ under Article 2.1 of the Paris Agreement, although the advisory opinion could be understood as implying so. With the ICJ’s AO, this has now been made clear.

Just a few days before the ICJ gave its AO, the Inter-American Court on Human Rights (IACtHR) gave its advisory opinion on the ‘obligations of States in responding to the climate emergency.’ The IACtHR not only identified an obligation to regulate climate mitigation under the 1969 American Convention on Human Rights and 1988 San Salvador Protocol, but also went into detail as to what action states must take to comply with the same (para. 322 et seq). In this regard, it found there to be a ‘significant international consensus’ on keeping the global average temperature increase from exceeding beyond 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. However, it added that even achieving this goal ‘does not eliminate the risk hovering over millions of people in the region’ (para. 326). As I had argued in a previous blogpost, there is nothing special about 1.5°C and 2°C, since they were merely a product of political compromise. Thus, the fact that the PA mentions these numbers does not necessarily lead to the conclusion that human rights law should be apathetic to the devastating impacts suffered by individuals and groups in a +1.4°C or +1.3°C warmer world. The threshold of warming that puts populations and ecosystems at ‘serious’ risk may vary from region to region. And the Inter-American Court affirmed this view. Still, since it had to specify a standard or otherwise risk leaving scope for ambiguity, the Court held that states must determine a mitigation target, based inter alia, ‘on a temperature increase of no more than 1.5ºC’ (para. 326). Again, the Court did not interpret Article 2.1(a) of the PA itself but rather used the provision, the international consensus and specific findings of the IPCC as to the risks of global warming exceeding the 1.5°C mark to help arrive at ‘a minimum starting point’ for what should inform national mitigation targets (para. 326). What is more, the language used by the Inter-American Court suggests no tolerance even for a limited overshoot above 1.5°C, in contrast to what seems to be suggested by the text of the UAE Consensus (see Decision 1/CMA.5, para 27).

Ultimately, the ECtHR, ITLOS and IACtHR avoided wading into the thicket of constructive ambiguity created by the mention of two temperature goals in Article 2.1(a) of the PA. Of course, they were only tasked with interpreting the ECHR, UNCLOS and ACHR respectively, and referring to the PA as a relevant instrument for interpretive purposes (VCLT, art. 31(3)(c)). Answering an interpretive question pertaining to an external treaty provision could have invited criticisms about the courts overstepping their jurisdiction. Moreover, the three courts in question may have chosen the ‘better safe than sorry’ approach, avoiding getting the interpretation of the PA wrong (before the ICJ could give its AO). Going forward, other courts may rely upon the findings in the AO about Article 2.1(a) PA, as well as its approach of using COP decisions as interpretive tools.

The Content of NDCs

The primacy of ‘national determination’ of mitigation contributions under the Paris Agreement (also called the ‘bottom-up approach’) has led to concerns about the toothlessness of the treaty. Indeed, while Article 4.2 creates a binding obligation on Parties to prepare and communicate NDCs, the committee tasked with reviewing compliance with this obligation cannot comment on their substantive (in)adequacy (Decision 20/CMA.1, Annex, para. 23). Moreover, the wording of Article 4.2 does not directly suggest that these NDCs must be highly ambitious or determined with concern for those most vulnerable to the effects of global warming. However, the ICJ held that ‘[t]he content of the NDCs is equally relevant’ to the formal preparation, communication and maintenance of successive NDCs ‘to determine compliance’ (para. 236).

The Court’s interpretation of Article 4.2 PA was based on other provisions of the Paris Agreement as well as COP Decisions. The following provisions were cited as providing support to the Court’s interpretation: Article 2 (setting out the Parties’ collective goals and manner of implementation of the PA), Article 3 (defining NDCs); Article 4.3 (setting out the normative expectation of progression and highest possible ambition); Article 14.3 (linking the outcomes of the global stocktake with NDCs) and Article 4.8 (linking information to be communicated through NDCs with COP decisions). Additionally, the Court relied on a requirement under the Paris Rulebook (adopted during the 2018 Katowice COP) that Parties must explain how they consider their contribution to be fair and ambitious, and how it contributes to the objectives of the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and Paris Agreement as set out in Article 2 of both treaties (Decision 4/CMA.1, Annex I, paras. 6-7). The Court’s reasoning on limited state discretion in determining the content of their NDCs is reminiscent of its reasoning in the Whaling judgment, relating to the question of whether the International Whaling Convention gives parties absolute discretion to determine whether their conduct falls within the ‘purposes of scientific research’ exception (see paras. 56-61). In both instances, the Court balanced the discretion-preserving intent suggested by the wording of the provisions against the treaties’ other-regarding object and purpose. And why is the ICJ’s finding that Parties’ discretion to self-regulate climate mitigation is not absolute important? As Judge Tladi noted in his declaration, this means that the ambitiousness (or sufficiency) of NDCs is ‘open to scrutiny, including judicial scrutiny’ (para. 17, emphasis added).

Concluding Remarks

This blogpost has highlighted two key findings of the ICJ regarding provisions of the PA. Parties must align the mitigation contributions they communicate with the 1.5°C goal as well as other standards under the PA such as progression, highest possible ambition, and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC). Given that objectives specified in NDCs need to be implemented with due diligence through domestic measures (PA, art. 4.2 second sentence), these findings will embolden domestic courts in reviewing such measures.

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The ICJ’s Advisory Opinion on Climate Change: Treaty and Custom – A Marriage with a Complicated Matrimonial Regime

Violetta Sefkow-Werner, PhD candidate at the University of Zurich

On 24 July 2025, the ICJ issued its long-awaited Advisory Opinion on the Obligations of States in respect of Climate Change. This blog post comments on the Opinion with respect to the ICJ’s findings (or non-findings) on the interaction between treaty and customary law and the missed opportunity to include human rights law.

Important Clarifications on the Applicable Law

The ICJ first clarified that the relevant customary international law obligations are the duty to prevent significant harm to the environment and the duty to cooperate. These duties apply in the context of climate change. They are not limited to bilateral relations or to direct cross-border harm (para. 134) and they are not displaced by the climate change treaties via the lex specialis principle (para. 171). This resolves a long-standing point of contention concerning the applicability and scope of customary environmental law in the context of climate change. It also confirms that the harm prevention rule applies to the global commons – in this case the climate system – and is an obligation erga omnes (para. 440) although the exact implications of this remain to be explored (see, e.g., Pezzano, EJIL:Talk!, 8 August 2025, and the Interim Report by the Institut de Droit International).

Interaction Between Treaty and Customary Law: Nudging, Presumption and a Gordian Knot

The ICJ further explained that customary international law and treaty law inform each other. The climate treaties provide substance to the due diligence required under customary law and the customary obligations provide guidance for the interpretation of the climate treaties (paras. 311 ff., Article 31(3)(c) VCLT). The ICJ referred to its previous case-law as well as the ITLOS’ Advisory Opinion on Climate Change and held that:

“the climate change treaties establish standards that may enable or facilitate the identification and application of the diligence that is due in specific instances. The Court also considers that the obligations arising from the climate change treaties, as interpreted herein, and State practice in implementing them inform the general customary obligations, just as the general customary obligations provide guidance for the interpretation of the climate change treaties.” (para. 313)

Moreover, there is a presumption of compliance with customary obligations (prevention duty and cooperation) if treaty obligations are fulfilled. This presumption ultimately applies to all States, regardless of whether they are parties to the climate treaties or not:

“[At] the present stage, compliance in full and in good faith by a State with the climate change treaties, as interpreted by the Court (…), suggests that this State substantially complies with the general customary duties to prevent significant environmental harm and to co-operate.” (para. 314)

“[A] non-party State which co-operates with the community of States parties to the three climate change treaties in a way that is equivalent to that of a State party, may, in certain instances, be considered to fulfil its customary obligations through practice that comports with the required conduct of States under the climate change treaties. However, if a non-party State does not co-operate in such a way, it has the full burden of demonstrating that its policies and practices are in conformity with its customary obligations.” (para. 315)

This can be seen as a form of nudging by the ICJ, pushing States to act in line with the international climate treaties, and immunizes climate obligations from a State’s treaty exit. It also suggests that the treaty obligations are included in the customary obligations and that the latter go further. Namely, the ICJ clarified:

“This does not mean, however, that the customary obligations would be fulfilled simply by States complying with their obligations under the climate change treaties (…). While the treaties and customary international law inform each other, they establish independent obligations that do not necessarily overlap.” (para. 314)

This raises the question of what is or will be found in the catch-all called customary international law. Judge Nolte notes that the added value of the conceptualization of treaty and customary law is that it provides room for nuance and complexity (Declaration of Judge Nolte, para. 13). With regard to the duty to cooperate, the ICJ held that climate treaties only contain some means of cooperation (para. 314), i.e. other forms remain possible and further collective action may potentially be necessary (para. 307). Moreover, States do not discharge their duty to cooperate by concluding and fulfilling treaties (para. 314). Consequently, there may be additional obligations under customary law, i.e. obligations that go beyond that required by the climate treaties (see also Joint Declaration of Judges Charlesworth, Brant, Cleveland and Aurescu, paras 5 and 9 f.).

What is more, a closer look at the specific obligations under treaty and customary law may reveal small discrepancies. For example, in the realm of customary law, the ICJ considers the different capabilities of States not according to their status as developed or developing countries but based on an individual assessment (para. 292). This assessment might depart from the categorization under the UNFCCC (Annex I, II and Non-Annex Parties) which results in differing commitments.

Finally, the customary duty of due diligence provides a yardstick for compliance with treaty obligations, although applying that yardstick might prove tricky. For instance, with regard to the assessment whether a State has acted with the required diligence when discharging its obligation under Article 3 of the Paris Agreement, there are in fact multiple offers for what diligence means: (1) the “stringent” standard as formulated by the ICJ in para. 138 and elaborated in paras. 246 f.; (2) the customary standard established in paras. 136 and 280 ff.; (3) the referral to Articles 4, 7, 9, 10, 11 and 13 of the Paris Agreement by Judge Xue in her Separate Opinion (paras. 48 f.). Thus, the ICJ’s pronouncements on the interplay between treaty and custom is only the neat-looking tip of a big and messy iceberg. Or, in more positive terms, a playground for academics and comfortably squishy interpretative gateway for judges.

Widening the Circle of Customary Law: The Relevance of Non-binding Norms

The standard of due diligence is not only informed by treaty law but also by soft law. The ICJ held:

“Current standards may arise from binding and non-binding norms. Such standards may therefore not only be contained in treaties and in customary international law, but they may also be reflected in certain decisions of the COPs to the climate change treaties and in recommended technical norms and practices, as appropriate.” (para. 287)

This is a fairly open statement. First, the ICJ did not specify what other non-binding norms or standards could play a role and how or to what extent they are to be taken into account. For example, do they have less normative force than binding rules? Second, one may wonder whether this interpretative approach will lead to differences between customary and treaty law. In principle, systemic interpretation is possible both for treaty and customary international law (Fortuna, in: Fortuna et al (eds), Customary International Law and Its Interpretation by International Courts, CUP 2024, Ch. 11). Article 31(3) VCLT enlists not only “relevant rules” (lit. c, confined to binding rules) as relevant sources for interpretation but also subsequent “agreements” (lit. a) and subsequent “practice” (lit. b). Hence, the interpretative sources may vary, but whether this is also true for the result remains to be seen. Third, concerns might arise regarding the reliance on soft law to interpret climate-related obligations. The ECtHR has already received backlash for integrating the climate treaties into human rights obligations, as this was perceived to circumvent the exclusion of enforcement mechanisms by the parties to the climate law regime. The ICJ’s findings on the applicability of the law of State responsibility and its rejection of the lex specialis argument in that context (paras. 410 ff.) has taken the wind out of that criticism. If – hypothetically – soft law is used in such a way that the hard law obligation essentially mirrors the soft law standard, it is de facto upgraded to hard law while, formally, still being referred to as soft law. This might raise legitimacy concerns, although it may ultimately remain a theoretical rather than a practical problem.

The Downer: Scarce Integration of Human Rights

While the ICJ was quite integrative and explicit in establishing a close link between customary and treaty obligations with respect to climate change, it was less so with regard to the interplay between treaty- or custom-based climate law and human rights. In para. 402, it stated that the (territorial?) scope of customary international law and human rights are distinct. This might be an implicit rejection of the 2017 IACtHR’s Advisory Opinion where the IACtHR established an extraterritorial human rights-based duty not to cause harm to the environment of other States (cf. IACtHR, OC-23/17 of 15 November 2017, para. 101; Brunnée, Procedure and Substance in International Environmental Law, 2020, p. 145). Moreover, unlike the IACtHR, the ICJ did not integrate a mandatory comprehensive human rights perspective into the relevant legal framework relating to climate change (IACtHR, AO-32/25 of 29 May 2025, Part VI). Similar criticism has also been made with regard to the ITLOS Advisory Opinion on Climate Change (Desierto, EJIL:Talk!, 3 June 2024).

The suggested interaction between human rights law and climate law is only weak. According to the ICJ, States are obliged under human rights law to take the necessary measures to protect the climate system and other parts of the environment. These may include, inter alia, “mitigation and adaption measures, with due account given to the protection of human rights, the adoption of standards and legislation of the activities of private actors” (para. 403, emphasis added). This reads like reiteration of the treaty- and custom-based obligations with a pinch of human rights protection. Moreover, the part on customary international law obligations does not mention human rights at all. Thus, where the ICJ Opinion is strong in harmonizing the climate treaties with customary environmental law, it does not use the full potential of systemic integration with respect to human rights law. Maybe the ICJ wanted to leave the interpretation of human rights law to the specialized treaty bodies and regional courts (cf. the ICJ’s references to the case law and General Comments of the UN human rights organs and the Inter-American and European Court of Human Rights, paras. 372 ff., 385). What is more, bringing human rights law together with climate and environmental law might prove more difficult upon closer examination due to the structural differences between the respective regimes concerning the object of protection and holders and beneficiaries of the obligations.

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The ICJ’s Cautious Approach to Extraterritorial Human Rights Obligations in the Climate Context

By Ayyoub (Hazhar) Jamali, postdoctoral researcher at the University of Zurich 

1. What the Court Said

In its Advisory Opinion of 23 July 2025, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) addressed, among other matters, the scope of States’ obligations under international human rights law in relation to climate change. A central, though implicitly framed, issue was whether States bear extraterritorial human rights obligations for climate-related harms affecting individuals beyond their borders.

In the section titled “Territorial scope of human rights treaties” (paras. 394–402), the Court recalled its previous jurisprudence recognizing that human rights treaties may apply extraterritorially when a State exercises jurisdiction outside its own territory. The ICJ reaffirmed that this interpretation applies in the context of the ICCPR, referencing its 2004 Wall Advisory Opinion and its 2005 Judgment in Armed Activities on the Territory of the Congo, as well as its 2024 Advisory Opinion on the Occupied Palestinian Territory.

Quoting the Wall Opinion, the Court confirmed that Article 2(1) of the ICCPR may cover individuals outside a State’s territory but subject to its jurisdiction, based on the object and purpose of the Covenant and the drafters’ intention (travaux préparatoires) not to allow States to escape responsibility when exercising jurisdiction abroad.

The Court also reiterated prior interpretations of other treaties:

  1. The ICESCR, while lacking an express territorial clause, may apply both to sovereign territory and to territory under the State’s jurisdiction (para. 400).
  2. The Convention on the Rights of the Child applies to “each child within their jurisdiction”, and was held applicable in the “Occupied Palestinian Territory” (para. 401).

Despite this, the Court stopped short of determining under what conditions a State exercises jurisdiction extraterritorially, stating that such analysis must be treaty-specific. Importantly, it distinguished between treaty law and customary international law (para. 402), signaling that the two frameworks may diverge in how they address jurisdiction and obligations.

2. Gaps and Unresolved Questions

The Court’s treatment of whether, and under what conditions, States have extraterritorial human rights obligations for climate-related harm reveals several significant analytical and normative gaps.

First, while the Court engaged with the treaty body jurisprudence, it refrained from offering judicial analysis or placing those views within a broader doctrinal framework. The ICJ’s passive approach left open the question of whether States accept these extraterritorial interpretations or whether they are mere soft law positions. In this context, it should be noted that the ICJ’s advisory function is not limited to summarizing existing legal positions; it carries a responsibility to offer authoritative guidance on unresolved or contested points of international law. In this case, where significant interpretive uncertainty surrounds the extraterritorial application of human rights obligations in the climate context, the Court had a rare opportunity to provide clarity. Instead, it recited existing jurisprudence without taking a clear position, leaving core questions — such as the legal status of treaty body interpretations or the threshold for extraterritorial jurisdiction — largely unaddressed.

Second, the Court made no attempt to tailor its discussion to the particularities of climate change, despite its inherently transboundary nature. It did not engage with concrete examples where extraterritorial obligations might arise. For instance, consider a scenario where State A, a major emitter of greenhouse gases, fails to regulate its fossil fuel industry. As a result, rising sea levels and intensified storms displace communities in State B, a low-lying island nation. Does State A have extraterritorial human rights obligations toward individuals in State B, given the foreseeable and science-based nature of the harm? This is precisely the kind of factual matrix where environmental law principles (such as the no-harm rule) might intersect with human rights obligations. Yet, the Court did not explore whether such functional or effects-based jurisdiction could be justified in the climate context.

Third, a notable omission in the ICJ’s Opinion is its failure to engage with relevant jurisprudence from regional human rights courts. Most significantly, the Court made no reference to the ECtHR’s 2024 Duarte Agostinho judgment, which directly addressed the question of extraterritorial human rights obligations in the context of climate change. In that case, the Strasbourg Court rejected an expansive reading of jurisdiction that would cover transboundary climate impacts. The ECtHR adhered to the traditional “control over the victim” model, expressing concern that adopting a “control over the source” approach would effectively turn the ECHR into a global climate change treaty.

In contrast, the ICJ remained silent. Given its universal mandate and its stated role in clarifying international law, even a brief engagement with Duarte Agostinho would have enriched the Opinion’s doctrinal relevance and provided a valuable comparative perspective. The omission may reflect institutional restraint: acknowledging a controversial regional judgment could be seen as implicitly endorsing—or rejecting—a contested interpretive move.

Fourth, in paragraph 402, the Court underscored a doctrinal distinction between treaty law and customary international law, stating that they must be analyzed separately. While the Court did not elaborate, this statement is more than a procedural clarification — it has important implications for the future development of extraterritorial obligations in the climate context.

Unlike treaties, which are based on explicit consent and often contain jurisdictional clauses (such as Article 2(1) of the ICCPR), customary international law is grounded in general practice accepted as law (opinio juris) and may evolve independently of treaty frameworks. By distinguishing the two, the Court subtly acknowledged that even if human rights treaties do not currently impose extraterritorial obligations in climate cases, customary law might still do so in the future — especially where transboundary harm is foreseeable and scientifically attributable (see para. 429).

This distinction could justify a different interpretive posture: the Court may be unwilling to extend extraterritoriality under treaty law due to concerns about textual fidelity and state consent, but customary law offers more normative flexibility. This is particularly relevant in the context of climate change, where global harm arises from cumulative emissions, not isolated acts, and where rigid territorial frameworks struggle to reflect real-world causal chains.

Moreover, the ICJ’s separation of treaty and customary law might also reflect institutional caution. Endorsing a customary rule allowing for extraterritorial environmental responsibility (without explicit treaty basis) could be seen as less politically provocative than redefining treaty obligations. Thus, the Court may be laying groundwork for future claims based on customary principles like the no-harm rule, the duty to cooperate, or emerging norms linking environmental harm to the enjoyment of human rights.

3. Conclusion

The ICJ’s restrained approach to extraterritoriality in the climate context is both telling and incomplete. Its silence reflects a delicate balancing act. While the Court reaffirmed universal obligations under customary international law (e.g., the duty to cooperate, the duty to prevent significant transboundary harm, and the erga omnes nature of climate obligations) it stopped short of clarifying whether these obligations entail extraterritorial jurisdiction in specific cases. In doing so, the Opinion preserves an appearance of judicial deference while simultaneously inviting further litigation and interpretation by regional courts and treaty bodies.

Nevertheless, the Opinion leaves room for legal development—whether through future litigation, the evolution of treaties, or the formation of customary law. The challenge now facing courts, States, and advocates is to ensure that this legal space does not remain undefined for too long.

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Shell Wins Appeal Against Dutch Emissions Cut Ruling

By Ayyoub (Hazhar) Jamali, postdoctoral researcher at the University of Zurich 

In a landmark decision from the Netherlands, an appeals court has ruled in favor of Shell, overturning a previous order requiring the company to slash its carbon emissions by 45% by 2030. The verdict not only grants Shell a reprieve from immediate, stringent emissions targets but also underscores complex legal questions about the role of private companies in addressing climate change and the primary responsibility of governments in enforcing emissions reductions. However, the decision offers no long-term relief for the corporation, as it recognises the corporations human rights obligation to limit emissions.

Background

In 2021, a Dutch district court issued a historic decision, ordering Shell to sharply reduce its CO2 emissions, aligning with the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. The case was filed by the environmental group Friends of the Earth Netherlands (Milieudefensie) along with 17,000 Dutch citizens, arguing that Shell had a duty of care to safeguard citizens from the adverse effects of climate change.

The original 2021 decision was hailed as a victory for climate justice, marking the first instance of a court holding a private company to the climate targets set forth by an international treaty. It offered hope to environmentalists and climate change activists seeking similar legal actions to hold corporations accountable for their climate impact.

The Shell then appealed, arguing that holding a single company accountable for a global problem would unfairly penalize it without yielding meaningful climate benefits. The company maintained that governments, rather than corporations alone, bear primary responsibility for implementing climate policy that protects human rights and curtails emissions. Shell defended its climate policies by pointing to its own emissions targets. It aims to reduce the carbon intensity of its products by 15-20% by 2030, with a longer-term objective of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. These goals, Shell argued, are a balanced approach to addressing climate change within its industry’s constraints and the broader global energy market’s demands.

The Court of Appeal’s Decision

The appeals court acknowledged that while Shell has ‘an obligation toward citizens to limits its CO2 emissions,’ it was not legally required to reduce emissions by a specific percentage such as the 45% set in the original ruling. The court cited an absence of an agreed-upon standard within climate science about the exact amount of emission reduction required for individual companies, underscoring the difficulty of assigning strict benchmarks for corporate emissions.

Moreover, the court emphasised that ensuring human rights protection, including protection from climate change, is primarily up to the government. This distinction is crucial as it places the ultimate accountability for emissions regulations on governmental bodies rather than corporations, which operate within the framework of policies set by those governments. The court noted that Shell was already working to curb emissions in its production processes and argued that even if Shell halted its fuel sales, other companies might simply fill the gap to meet ongoing demand for fossil fuels, effectively resulting in no reduction in overall emissions. This reasoning aligns with Shell’s assertion that addressing climate change requires coordinated policy shifts across the entire energy sector, rather than targeting individual companies in isolation.

Concluding Remarks

The appeals court’s decision arrives at a time when nations around the world are convening for COP29 in Azerbaijan to discuss their own commitments to climate goals, underscoring the international focus on policy solutions to climate change. Adding to the complexities of the global climate policy landscape, the recent U.S. presidential election saw the return of Donald Trump, a known climate policy skeptic, which could further complicate the global effort for fighting for climate change justice.

While the outcome of this case appears to be unfavourable for climate change litigation, it offers no sign of relief for corporations in a longer run. The fact that the appeal court acknowledged the responsibility of Shell to limit emissions remains a noteworthy aspect of the case. The court of appeal fully upheld the district court’s recognition of Shell’s human rights-based obligation to combat dangerous climate change—a responsibility that extends to its scope 3 emissions, covering the emissions from the use of its products. This recognition underscores the growing acceptance of corporate accountability in contributing to global emission reduction efforts. Furthermore, while the appeals court refrained from ruling on Shell’s planned investments in new oil and gas fields, it noted that such investments could conflict with Shell’s obligation to reduce emissions. Although this issue was not central to the proceedings, it points to a potential future clash between corporate investment strategies and climate responsibilities.

However, the ruling lacks clarity in specifying Shell’s ‘special responsibility’ and stops short of imposing a clear legal mandate, leaving questions about the enforceability of such obligations. This case is not over yet. The applicants can either accept the ruling or appeal the case further to the Dutch Supreme Court. Given the importance of this issue and the potential of this case, it is likely that they will pursue the latter option. This could shape the future of corporate climate responsibility in the Netherlands and beyond.

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UK Supreme Court Mandates Inclusion of Downstream Emissions in Environmental Impact Assessments

By Ayyoub (Hazhar) Jamali, postdoctoral researcher at the University of Zurich 

Introduction

On 20 June 2024, the UK Supreme Court delivered a landmark judgment in the case of R (on the application of Finch on behalf of the Weald Action Group) v Surrey County Council and others. This decision, reached by a majority of 3 to 2, mandates that Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA) must include the assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions resulting from the eventual combustion of extracted oil. The ruling has profound implications for environmental law and policy, highlighting the extent of developers’ responsibilities in mitigating climate change impacts. It mirrors a significant legal precedent set earlier in January 2024 by the Oslo District Court, which underscored the legal obligation to assess combustion emissions under Directive 2014/52/EU (EIA Directive) and relevant national regulations (p. 88).

Background

The factual and procedural background of the case involved the expansion of oil production at the Horse Hill Well Site in Surrey. Initially, Surrey County Council required the Oil Well Development (developer) to include an assessment of combustion emissions in their EIA. However, the Council later accepted a narrower EIA that only considered direct emissions at the project site over its lifetime and did not include an assessment of the climate impact of the oil’s combustion (para. 5)​​. Following this decision, Sarah Finch, representing the Weald Action Group, applied for a judicial review of the Council’s decision. She argued that the EIA should have accounted for GHG emissions from using the oil when assessing the environmental impacts of the project, not just the drilling site itself. The Council countered, arguing that it had the discretion to decide the full impact of the project. Both the High Court and the Court of Appeal dismissed her claim, leading the case to be reviewed by the Supreme Court.

Judgment

The central issue in the case was whether the Council lawfully granted planning permission to a developer under the 2017 EIA Regulations, which implement the EIA Directive in the UK. The Supreme Court concluded that the Council acted unlawfully by approving the project without considering combustion emissions in the EIA (paras. 6, 52-53, 174). The judgment was based on the finding that the EIA failed to evaluate the climate effect of the combustion of the oil, and the reasons the Council provided for disregarding this impact were deemed clearly flawed (paras. 174, 111).

The Council had only assessed the climate effects directly attributable to the project, stating that ‘the scope of the assessment self-evidently did not comply with the legal requirement to assess both direct and indirect effects of the proposed development’ (para. 101).  However, the Court reasoned that ‘it is in the very nature of “indirect” effects that they may occur as a result of a complex pathway involving intermediate activities away from the place where the project is located’ (para. 102). Specifically, the Court established a clear causal link between oil extraction and its combustion, emphasizing that fossil fuels are extracted with the primary intent of being used as energy sources, inevitably leading to combustion. This direct causal relationship necessitates the inclusion of combustion emissions in the EIA to fully understand the environmental impact of the project (paras. 79-92)​​.

The Court rejected the Court of Appeal’s position that the necessity to assess emissions is an evaluative judgment for individual planning authorities. Instead, it argued that this is a matter of law, which rationally yields only one correct answer (para. 56). It argued that the legislative regime mandates that an EIA must ‘cover both the direct effects and any indirect, secondary, cumulative, transboundary, short-term, medium-term and long-term, permanent and temporary, positive and negative effects of the project’ (para. 83). The Court highlighted that the EIA Directive does not set any geographical limits on the environmental effects that must be identified, described, and assessed for a project requiring an EIA. All significant potential impacts of the project must be evaluated, regardless of their location or timing. There is no justification to limit the assessment solely to effects expected at or near the project’s site (para. 93).

The judgment also stressed that excluding these emissions would undermine the Directive’s objective of ensuring comprehensive environmental considerations in decision-making processes. Writing for the majority, Lord Leggatt’s analysis highlighted the interconnected history and reciprocal influence between the Aarhus Convention and the EIA Directive. He emphasized the critical importance of public participation in the EIA process, emphasizing its role in providing early and effective opportunities for stakeholders to express their views, thereby enhancing democratic legitimacy. Furthermore, he stressed the role of public access to information, citing the principle that ‘you can only care about what you know about’ (paras. 20-21).

Conclusion

The Supreme Court’s landmark judgment marks an important victory for grassroots environmental campaigners and deals a heavy blow to the fossil fuel industry in the UK and potentially beyond, with implications for similar legal challenges across Europe. This ruling has far-reaching implications, echoing a similar decision by the Oslo District Court in January 2024, which also emphasized the legal obligation to assess combustion emissions under the EIA Directive and relevant national regulations. The arguments put forth in the Norwegian case appear to have influenced the reasoning of the UK Supreme Court, as endorsed by Lord Leggatt for the majority, who found them persuasive (paras. 171-173). This cross-jurisdictional resonance underscores a growing legal consensus regarding the importance of rigorous EIA in regulatory frameworks across Europe. As such, the UK Supreme Court’s decision not only benefits environmental protections domestically but also sets a potentially influential precedent for future environmental litigation in the broader European context.

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The Value of IPCC Reports in Shaping Climate Change Jurisprudence

By Ayyoub (Hazhar) Jamali, postdoctoral researcher at the University of Zurich

In recent months, two international courts have recognised climate change-related obligations under two different legal regimes. In the case of Verein KlimaSeniorinnen Schweiz and Others v Switzerland, the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) has found that the right to life and the right to private and family life impose positive obligations on States to implement measures and regulations necessary to address climate change, insofar as it poses a risk to these rights. Similarly, the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) highlighted in its advisory opinion that States have a duty to take all necessary measures to prevent, reduce, and control anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, guided by the best available science and international standards. In both cases, the reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) played a significant role in shaping the courts’ decisions and findings. This underscores the critical influence of scientific research in guiding legal interpretations and reinforcing the necessity for international cooperation in combating climate change. The analysis below provides a short summary of the growing value of the IPCC reports and their application by the ECtHR and ITLOS in their recent findings and pronouncements.

The Value of IPCC Reports

The IPCC is a unique collaboration involving thousands of scientific experts from around the world, bringing together the most comprehensive and up-to-date understanding of climate science. This collaborative effort is unprecedented in the history of science, not only for its scale but also for the acceptance and reliance it has garnered from governments globally.

In fact, the IPCC’s research and updates of the state of knowledge on information relevant for the understanding of the risk of climate change have been crucial for the development of international climate law (Ghaleigh 2016). Beyond its role in shaping the collective response to climate change, the IPCC’s findings have also played a crucial role in the adjudication of climate litigation by courts. The IPCC has been described as the ‘world’s most authoritative assessment body on the science of climate change’ (Gloucester Resources Limited v Minister for Planning [2019] NSWLEC 7, paras. 431-435) and its reports have been crucial in both constructing the factual background of the case and underpinning the necessity of urgent and stringent climate mitigation policy (Urgenda Foundation v The State of the Netherlands, Supreme Court of the Netherlands, 2019; Commune de Grande-Synthe v France, Conseil d’État, 2021; Neubauer et al. v Germany, German Federal Constitutional Court, 2022).

Both the ECtHR and ITLOS, have extensively referenced various IPCC reports in support of their recent findings regarding the impacts of climate change on human rights and the marine environment respectively, as well as their reasoning underlying their conclusions. The IPCC reports indicated that increasing temperatures and heatwaves, exacerbated by climate change, lead to significant health risks and increased mortality. The ECtHR cited the IPCC’s conclusion that climate change results in more frequent and intense heatwaves, which disproportionately affect older adults, women, and those with chronic diseases (paras. 510, 511, 530). This evidence supported the applicants’ claims that the Swiss authorities’ failure to mitigate climate change posed a direct threat to their health and well-being, thus engaging positive obligations under Articles 2 and 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights.

In its AO, the Tribunal highlighted the IPCC’s findings on the necessity of limiting global warming to 1.5°C to mitigate severe impacts on marine ecosystems and human communities. It also underscored the need for rapid and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, as outlined in the IPCC reports, to meet international climate goals​​. In fact, the Tribunal’s reliance on authoritative scientific evidence provided by the IPCC underscores the importance of integrating robust climate science into legal deliberations. By utilising IPCC definitions and confidence levels in assessing climate change impacts, ITLOS was able to clarify key concepts (e.g., climate change, GHG emission, ocean acidification), prioritize issues, and reinforce its stance on the urgent need for States to address marine pollution and protect the marine environment (paras. 57-66, 157, 209-210, 241, 398).

Notably, the validity of the IPCC reports was not questioned by most participants in the AO proceeding or the Swiss government in the KlimaSeniorinenn case. The Swiss government even argued that its national emissions reduction targets relied on the IPCC’s assessment report (para 91). This broad acceptance of the IPCC’s findings highlights their critical role in shaping international climate-related legal obligations and policies.

Conclusion

The ECtHR and the ITLOS have both recognized climate change-related obligations under different legal regimes, emphasizing states’ responsibilities to mitigate climate risks. The ECtHR affirmed that climate change poses a direct threat to human rights, necessitating positive state actions, while ITLOS highlighted obligations to protect the marine environment from GHG emissions. The IPCC reports have played an important role in these judicial decisions and opinions, providing authoritative scientific evidence that underpins the necessity for urgent climate action. The recognition and reliance on IPCC reports by these courts reflect their authoritative status in climate science and their significant influence on international climate law and litigation.

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ECtHR and ITLOS on Climate Change: A Common Approach to Climate Treaties?

By Pranav Ganesan, PhD candidate at the University of Zurich

Two international courts have now recognized the existence of climate change-related obligations under two different legal regimes. The European Court of Human Rights (‘ECtHR’), in the case of Verein KlimaSeniorinenn Schweiz and others v Switzerland (‘KS’) has found that the right to life and right to private and family life under the European Convention of Human Rights (‘ECHR’) encompass positive obligations on states to take measures and regulations necessary to address climate change to the extent that it poses a risk of harm to those rights. The International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea (‘ITLOS’) concluded in its advisory opinion (‘AO’), that states parties to the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (‘UNCLOS’) have specific obligations to protect the marine environment and prevent transboundary harm to other states through prevention and control of pollution from greenhouse gas (‘GHG’) emissions, and international cooperation. The AO was issued upon the request of the Commission on Small Island States (‘COSIS’), an international organization which was constituted as a vehicle for global cooperation in contributing towards definition, implementation and progressive development of rules and principles of international law concerning climate change (Article 1(3), COSIS Agreement). Article 2(3) of its constative treaty explicitly authorizes it to request an advisory opinion from the ITLOS on any legal question within the scope of UNCLOS). The creation of COSIS was presumably inspired by the conclusion by the ITLOS in the SFRC Advisory Opinion, that it can exercise advisory jurisdiction over a legal question if an international agreement related to the purposes of the UNCLOS specifically provides for such a request (para 219).

This blogpost will highlight the ECtHR and ITLOS’ engagement with the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement, and specifically Article 2.1(a) of the Paris Agreement which expresses an international commitment to pursue efforts to keep the global average temperature from increasing beyond 1.5°C, and well below 2°C (‘Paris temperature targets’). While there are commonalities between how the two courts clarified the relationship between their constitutive treaties the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement, there seems to be a difference between what they held in regard to the Paris temperature targets.

Interaction between climate treaties and the ECHR/UNCLOS

Both the ECtHR and the ITLOS found that the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement are relevant for the purposes of determining the content of due diligence obligations to reduce GHG emissions, under the ECHR and UNCLOS, respectively (KS, paras. 455-456; AO, para. 222). The climate treaties do not supplant climate-related obligations arising out of the ECHR and UNCLOS, and a states’ compliance with the provisions of the former does not equate to compliance with the latter (KS, para. 547, AO, para. 223).

Both the ECtHR and the ITLOS specifically pointed out that the Paris temperature targets contained are salient for interpretation purposes. In the context of climate related positive obligations under the ECHR, the ECtHR noted that ‘the global aims as to the need to limit the rise in global temperature, as set out in the Paris Agreement, must inform the formulation of domestic policies’ (para. 547). The ITLOS similarly noted that “[i]n particular, the temperature goal and the timeline for emission pathways set out in the Paris Agreement inform the content of necessary measures to be taken under article 194, paragraph 1, of the [UNCLOS]” (para. 222). The Tribunal has been criticised for stopping short in its consideration of the provisions of the Paris Agreement, since beyond the temperature thresholds and the timeline for the collective achievement of net-zero, which are found in Articles 2.1 and Article 4.1 respectively, there are other obligations and legal principles in the Paris Agreement which may be regarded as relevant for interpretation purposes (Voigt).

1.5°C Temperature target

Article 2.1 (a) of the Paris Agreement contains two negative temperature targets: 1.5°C and 2°C, with different language qualifying each of them. The provision a does not in itself create distinct individual or collective legal obligations for Parties, but are operationally relevant in the calibration of individual states parties’ own mitigation efforts under their NDCs (see Rajamani and Werksman). This leads to concerns about what it means for due diligence obligations to be interpreted on the basis of the Paris temperature targets. To illustrate this issue by way of a question: consider three scenarios where a state choses to determine its own mitigation efforts: (a) on the basis of the 2°C target without considering the 1.5°C target, (b) on the basis of a pathway with limited overshoot of 1.5°C but no exceedance beyond 2°C, and (c) on the basis of its own (different) assessment of what constitutes safe levels of atmospheric GHG concentrations. How do each of these three determinations affect the state’s compliance with due diligence obligations under Article 8 ECHR/ Article 194(1) UNCLOS?

The ECtHR did not specify if one out of the two temperature targets are relevant in defining states’ positive obligation to mitigate climate change under Article 8. It held that regulations and measures must be “aimed at preventing an increase in GHG concentrations in the Earth’s atmosphere and a rise in global average temperature beyond levels capable of producing serious and irreversible adverse effects on human rights, notably the right to private and family life and home under Article 8 of the Convention” (para. 546, emphasis added). As for the ITLOS, the advisory opinion neither dwells on the relationship between the two temperature targets, and how each of them have particular effects on the interpretation of the UNCLOS provisions containing due diligence obligations to protect the marine environment. It merely identifies the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement as two some amongst the many reference points for assessing necessary measures (para. 214). However, it does speak to temperature thresholds in a different context: of IPCC’s findings. In its review of the best available science, which the Tribunal had earlier identified as playing a crucial role in the determination of states’ due diligence obligations (para. 212), it held that ‘there is also broad agreement within the scientific community that if global temperature increases exceed 1.5°C, severe consequences for the marine environment would ensue’ (para. 241). In its conclusion, the Tribunal held that ‘necessary measures to prevent, reduce and control marine pollution from anthropogenic GHG emissions’ under Article 194(1) UNCLOS:

‘should be determined objectively, taking into account, inter alia, the best available science  and relevant international rules and standards contained in climate change treaties such as the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement, in particular the global temperature goal of limiting the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and the timeline for emission pathways to achieve that goal’ (para. 243)

The two courts’ pronouncements still leave the question of how exactly the Paris temperature targets ought to inform states’ due diligence obligations open. It is likely that they will be called upon to provide clarity on this aspect in the future.

Conclusion

In responding to the questions that was posed before the two courts, they seem to have wielded the tool of systemic integration. The two pronouncements reflect a common understanding: that broad legal obligations such as the duty to protect individuals’ right to life and prevent unjustifiable interferences with their right to private and family life, and the duty to protect the marine environment, albeit arising out of treaty provisions which were not drafted with climate change in mind, require individual mitigation measures against anthropogenic climate change. This action needs be informed by the provisions of the Paris Agreement as opposed to, whereas states’ compliance with the latter would not suffice in ensuring legal compliance with what other legal regimes require in regard to climate change. However, this does not mean that the ECtHR and the ITLOS spoke with one voice in regard to all issues. In particular, their engagement with the Paris temperature targets, insofar as interpretation of due diligence obligations arising from the relevant treaties is concerned seemed different. While the ITLOS specifically interpreted Article 194(1) as implying a duty to take measures that take into account the 1.5°C temperature target under the Paris Agreement specifically, the ECtHR’s interpretation was that ECHR parties’ measures be informed by both temperature targets. It remains to be seen whether in future cases, courts will be able to nuance the practical difference between a duty to take into account the lower 1.5°C temperature target, and a duty take into account both targets in the determination of mitigation measures.

P.S. In engaging in discourse on the temperature targets, it is important to keep in mind that there is nothing magical about the 1.5°C and 2°C numbers. These are temperature targets which have been noted in the Paris Agreement as a result of a political compromise, and based on predictions about the consequences of breaching these thresholds. States’ (differentiated) responsibility for breaching obligations associated with the prevention of the devastating impacts of climate change on populations and ecosystems do not begin only after the 1.5°C threshold is breached. It would be unreasonable to argue that international human rights law and the law of the sea are apathetic to the human suffering and the devastating impacts for the marine environment in a warming world that is yet to cross the 1.5°C threshold.